Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.142894 0.167349 0.194260 0.226004 0.262359 0.302623 0.350524
2025-12-14 0.097256 0.128779 0.167346 0.217692 0.281332 0.358722 0.459536
2025-12-21 0.073247 0.106498 0.150563 0.212559 0.296743 0.406164 0.558063
2025-12-28 0.060347 0.094798 0.143537 0.216385 0.321103 0.464516 0.673676
2026-01-04 0.052052 0.087478 0.140513 0.223991 0.349908 0.530054 0.803745
2026-01-11 0.045000 0.080475 0.136403 0.228648 0.373917 0.589956 0.930187
2026-01-18 0.038869 0.073704 0.131346 0.230631 0.393296 0.643889 1.051564
2026-01-25 0.033593 0.067361 0.125860 0.230809 0.409204 0.693130 1.169004
2026-02-01 0.028786 0.060959 0.119230 0.227941 0.419336 0.733489 1.274998
2026-02-08 0.024669 0.055093 0.112620 0.224054 0.426917 0.769749 1.376481
2026-02-15 0.020659 0.048695 0.104060 0.215414 0.424975 0.789457 1.451397
2026-02-22 0.019515 0.048032 0.106326 0.227108 0.460416 0.875411 1.644376
2026-03-01 0.016557 0.042971 0.099294 0.220268 0.461397 0.901976 1.738102
2026-03-08 0.014009 0.038360 0.092528 0.213116 0.461045 0.926153 1.829694
2026-03-15 0.012028 0.034692 0.087201 0.208167 0.464294 0.956876 1.934997
2026-03-22 0.010939 0.033028 0.086062 0.211929 0.485291 1.022373 2.109053
2026-03-29 0.010208 0.032154 0.086603 0.219395 0.514540 1.105749 2.322354
2026-04-05 0.009377 0.030844 0.085914 0.223966 0.538014 1.179387 2.521672
2026-04-12 0.008497 0.029215 0.084196 0.225912 0.555911 1.243038 2.705457
2026-04-19 0.007634 0.027452 0.081869 0.226087 0.569802 1.299344 2.878009
2026-04-26 0.006744 0.025408 0.078497 0.223272 0.576600 1.341317 3.024151
2026-05-03 0.005925 0.023402 0.074913 0.219457 0.580650 1.377637 3.160825
2026-05-10 0.005047 0.020983 0.069783 0.210977 0.572782 1.387634 3.243016